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JULY 23,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

DEMS AT WAR – FROM CNN:   (CNN) The head of the Democratic National Committee will not speak at the party's convention next week, a decision reached by party officials Saturday after emails surfaced that raised questions about the committee's impartiality during the Democratic primary.  Debbie Wasserman Schultz, whose stewardship of the DNC has been under fire through most of the presidential primary process, will not have a major speaking role in an effort "to keep the peace" in the party, a Democrat familiar with the decision said. The revelation comes following the release of nearly 20,000 emails.  I love it.  Even the national chairwoman gets purged to save Bernie's feelings.  When do we see the guillotine?

GRAND ADMIRAL KERRY DEFENDS THE NATION – FROM THE WASHINGTON FREE BEACON:   Secretary of State John Kerry said in Vienna on Friday that air conditioners and refrigerators are as big of a threat to life as the threat of terrorism posed by groups like the Islamic State.  The Washington Examiner reported that Kerry was in Vienna to amend the 1987 Montreal Protocol that would phase out hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs, from basic household and commercial appliances like air conditioners, refrigerators, and inhalers.  You may see an air conditioner or refrigerator operating this week.  Call the police!  If you see something, say something!

JOHN, SHUT UP –  FROM THE HILL:   Ohio Gov. John Kasich says Donald Trump will have trouble winning the key battleground Buckeye State in November.   "Ohio's a snapshot of the country. People in Ohio want to see a positive agenda, a positive way to move forward," Kasich told Philly.com, calling Trump a “divider.”  "My position is, I'd like to see Donald become a unifier and positive. We just have some fundamental disagreements including a few areas: trade, immigration, foreign policy," he added.  Kasich, who mounted his own GOP presidential run, has not endorsed Trump, the Republican nominee for president. He did not attend last week’s Republican Nacional Convention in his home state.  "Without an endorsement, I thought it would be inappropriate for me to go in there and make some kind of a talk," he said.  "There will be no way that I'm going to vote for Hillary Clinton. As for what I do in the end, I don't know," he added.  Remaining silent might be helpful, John.  If you want a political future, don't knife your party's nominee in the back.

July 23, 2016       Permalink

 

HORROR IN AFGHANISTAN – AT 12:44 P.M. ET:  The relentlessness of terror attacks is stunning.  One right after the other.  And the Olympics start in two weeks.  From AP:

KABUL, Afghanistan – At least 80 people were killed and another 231 wounded in the Afghan capital on Saturday, when a suicide bomber detonated his explosives-packed clothing among a large crowd of demonstrators, officials and witnesses said.

In a statement issued by its news agency, Aamaq, the group ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack on a protest march by Afghanistan's ethnic Hazaras. The marchers were demanding that a major regional electric power line be routed through their impoverished home province. Most Hazaras are Shiite Muslims, while most Afghans are Sunni.

Waheed Majroeh, the head of international relations for the Ministry of Public Health, confirmed the death toll and said it was likely to rise "as the condition of many of the injured is very serious."

Footage on Afghan television and photographs posted on social media showed a scene of horror and carnage, with numerous bodies and body parts spread across the square.

Other witnesses said that after the blast, security personnel shot their weapons in the air to disperse the crowd. Secondary attacks have been known to target people who come to the aid of those wounded in a first explosion.

Road blocks that had been set up overnight to prevent the marchers accessing the center of the city or the presidential palace hampered efforts to transfer some of the wounded to hospital, witnesses said. People took to social media to call for blood donations.

COMMENT:  I guess the Obama administration is studying the attack to determine the "motivation" of the attackers. 

ISIS may be losing land in the Mideast, but it is gaining in its terror offensive.  And it is encouraging its followers, and followers-to-be, all over the world.

July 23, 2016        Permalink

 

CAN TRUMP DENT THE YOUTH VOTE? – AT 11:51 A.M. ET:  This is fascinating.  Is it possible for Donald Trump to neutralize Clinton's hold on the youth vote?  From the Boston Herald: 

CLEVELAND — Donald Trump can close the massive gap among young voters that sank Republicans’ chances at the White House in 2012 and take advantage of Hillary Clinton’s ongoing problems connecting with millennials, the real estate mogul’s newly hired pollster told the Herald.

“Yes, definitely,” said Kellyanne Conway, a Republican strategist who now works for Trump. “President Obama won 66 percent of young people in 2008. He won 60 percent of them in 2012. And Hillary Clinton has a hard time getting there and staying there in most of the national polls” and in swing-state surveys.

Conway said she thinks Trump can attract millennials who supported Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders in the primaries and still don’t accept Clinton, as well as those living in rust-belt states, where Trump is hoping to attract blue-collar Democrats.

“The Trump-Pence ticket actually saves the Republican Party from veering dangerously close to becoming the party of the elites, where it was headed, and on to the party of the working class,” Conway said. “And that appeals to lots of millennials.

“For millennials,” she added, “a big economic and national security message is, do you feel as safe, do you feel as prosperous as either your parents did at this stage in their lives or as you think you deserve to be? The answer for many of them is no.”

Attracting young voters was a huge problem for Republicans in 2012. Former Bay State Gov. Mitt Romney only captured 37 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds, according to exit polls.

Trump has a lot of room to make up. This week’s Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald poll showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 8 points among millennials ages 18-24 and by 22 points among 25-34 year olds.

Facebook Global Politics and Government Outreach Director Katie Harbath told the Herald the number of people 18-34 who have been engaging in political discussions on the social media platform has been climbing since the beginning of 2015, and she expects it to translate into a large voter turnout among that demographic on Nov. 8.

COMMENT:  Okay, but the only way Trump can win is by being self-disciplined and on-message, and that is where he messes up...regularly.  He did it yesterday again.  His advisers really have to sit down and explain the world to him.

And he can use Ivanka among the millennials.  Star quality always counts.

July 23, 2016       Permalink

 

OH DEAR.  NOT QUITE MR. CLEAN – AT 11:24 A.M. ET:  Seems like Virginia's Tim Kaine, Hillary's choice for vice president, has been on the receiving end of dubious "favors."  Certainly not in Clinton's league, but worrisome nonetheless.  From The Politico:

Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine took advantage of the state’s lax gift laws to receive an $18,000 Caribbean vacation, $5,500 in clothes and a trip to watch George Mason University play in the NCAA basketball Final Four during his years as lieutenant governor and governor, according to disclosures he filed.

Now a leading contender to be Hillary Clinton’s running mate, Kaine reported more than $160,000 in gifts from 2001 to 2009, mostly for travel to and from political events and conferences, according to disclosures compiled by the Virginia Public Access Project. The givers included political supporters, a drug company that soon after bought a facility in Virginia, and Dominion, the state’s biggest provider of electricity.

While legal under Virginia’s unusually permissive ethics rules, the gifts could become attack-ad fodder after similar presents led to corruption charges for Gov. Bob McDonnell, whose conviction the Supreme Court overturned Monday. Republicans could also use the records to portray Kaine as part of the self-dealing establishment in a cycle animated by hostility toward the political class.
Kaine’s staff and other defenders are quick to note that his gifts did not contain any suggestion of a quid pro quo trade for official favors — a major difference from the McDonnell case, and the key difference between an act of friendship and an act of corruption. And Kaine’s long career in Virginia politics, capped by a stint as chairman of the Democratic National Committee, contained no allegations of corruption.

“During his eight years as lieutenant governor and governor, Sen. Kaine went beyond the requirements of Virginia law, even publicly disclosing gifts of value beneath the reporting threshold,” a spokesperson said. “He’s confident that he met both the letter and the spirit of Virginia’s ethical standards.”

But Virginia’s standards are widely perceived as too permissive, especially in the wake of the McDonnell case. And even the appearance of lower standards could become an issue in the national spotlight.

COMMENT:  As the late Gilda Radner used to say, "It's always something."  I'm sure the Republicans are already doing their research on Kaine.

By the way, Kaine is labeled a "moderate" by some, but in fact was one of the most zealous Senate supporters of the Iran nuclear deal.  Not a recommendation.

July 23,  2016     Permalink


 

 

JULY 22,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET:

HILLARY'S CHOICE – She's picked Virginia Senator Tim Kaine for vice president.  Kaine previously served as governor of Virginia.  From Powerline:  "The mainstream media likes to portray Kaine as a 'centrist' and a 'bridge builder.' The reality is quite different.  In the Senate, Kaine almost always votes the liberal line. The American Conservative Union consistently gives him a zero rating. Same with the Eagle Forum. With Americans for Prosperity and Heritage Action, he’s in single digits.  Kaine is a practicing Catholic, but a reliable pro-abortion vote. He gets a zero from the Family Research Council and 100 percent from NARAL and Planned Parenthood.  Though at times he talked a good game on the problems with the Iran nuclear deal, in the end he voted for it, to no one’s surprise.  This is the New York Times’s idea of a moderate."   Compared to the new Democratic Party, he's Calvin Coolidge.  In the adult world he is just as Powerline describes him.

TRUMP DOES IT AGAIN – Fresh from a triumphant last night of his convention, Donald Trump couldn't resist the temptation to step all over his victory.  This morning he held a bizarre news conference in which he viciously attacked Ted Cruz, announcing that he didn't want Cruz's endorsement anyway.  I have no idea why Trump does that, detracting from his own victory and making himself look like a nut case.  I mean, he's not running against Cruz, he's running against Hillary.  Focus, focus, focus.  Trump can easily defeat himself, and often seems to be working at it, as if it's a sacred goal.  We assign his children to keep him on message and out of trouble.  Or...maybe he really is a nut case.  We'll soon find out.

BOUNCE – FROM THE HILL:   Donald Trump is within 3 percentage points of Hillary Clinton nationally, according to a new poll released Friday, showing a bounce from the Republican National Convention.  Clinton has 41 percent support among likely voters, and Trump has 38 percent, the Reuters/Ipsos poll found.  The former secretary of State was leading by 12 points in last week’s Reuters poll, released days before the GOP convention began in Cleveland on Monday.  Friday’s poll surveyed 1,036 likely voters July 18–22, and the convention ran July 18–21. It has a credibility interval of about 4 points.  The new poll mirrors other recent surveys. According to RealClearPolitics, Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, leads by an average of 2.7 points in the latest polls.  We'll see if the Dems get a bounce out of their convention.  I'm not sure they will.  Hillary is an old face who has little upside potential.  Kaine is dull.  And there'll be enough flashes of the party's hard left to turn many people off.  But the media will help whenever possible.

July 22, 2016       Permalink

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FOX AILING – AT 11:28 A.M. ET:   Roger Ailes, who built Fox News into a journalistic powerhouse, is out.  From AP:

NEW YORK (AP) -- Fox News Channel is minus founding leader Roger Ailes but not its direction, Rupert Murdoch vowed.

"I am personally committed to ensuring that Fox News remains a distinctive, powerful voice. Our nation needs a robust Fox News to resonate from every corner of the country," Murdoch said in a statement Thursday after Ailes, 76, resigned under pressure as chief executive while fighting a workplace misconduct suit.

The vacuum left by his departure after two decades will be filled for now by Murdoch, 85, the executive chairman of network parent 21st Century Fox. He will run Fox News and its sister Fox Business Network, which Ailes had also led, until a successor is found.

Former Fox anchor Gretchen Carlson's lawsuit alleges she was forced out by Ailes after she spurned his sexual advances. Ailes has denied the claims and did not comment on his resignation.

But Carlson's attorneys did.

"We hope that all businesses now understand that women will no longer tolerate sexual harassment and reputable companies will no longer shield those who abuse women," lawyers Nancy Erika Smith and Martin Hyman said in a statement.

Within two weeks of the court filing, Carlson's lawyers also said more than 20 women had contacted the firm with stories of alleged harassment by Ailes either against themselves or someone they knew.

Murdoch and 21st Century Fox did not address the widening scandal in the statement but lauded Ailes for his contributions. Details were not given on the settlement agreement for a contract that was supposed to run through 2018, but Ailes is expected to get a payment of at least $40 million.

Ailes will have no formal role in the company, but is expected to serve as an informal adviser to Murdoch, said a person familiar with the agreement who spoke on condition of anonymity because it is a personnel matter. The deal is also said to have a standard no-compete clause.

COMMENT:  The most significant thing here is that Rupert Murdoch is personally taking over leadership of Fox News.  That tells me he is committed to the vision that he and Roger Ailes had, a network that is an alternative to the mainstream media.  That is the key to Fox's success.

There'll be a great deal of attention to whether Fox's top personalities stay with Fox.  Most are very devoted to Ailes, but Murdoch's presence may convince them to stay.

This story will develop over a period of months.

July 22, 2016       Permalink

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THE SPEECH – AT 10:24 A.M. ET:  It's too early for major polling on Donald Trump's acceptance speech, although early reports show a generally favorable reaction from the public and a decidedly unfavorable reaction (shock, shock) from the mainstream media.  One traditional Democrat, although a moderate, has an interesting warning for his fellow Dems.  From Doug Schoen at Fox: 

Hillary Clinton and the Democrats should be worried.

Why? Because Donald Trump delivered Thursday night and did what he needed to do. No, he didn’t deliver a speech with great oratorical flourish. No, he didn’t broaden the base of the party significantly though he did speak about minorities and the LGBTQ community in ways that he hadn’t done before.

What Trump did, and he did it very well, was to raise the stakes of the election and define it in his own terms. Law and order, crime in the streets, and terror. He managed to make the argument, compellingly, that these challenges were the central ones America faced and that given the failures of President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, his way of change was the only way to go.

It was a long speech, it ran well over an hour and it was repetitive in parts. But that doesn’t matter. Trump was ultimately speaking to a fairly discrete and arguably specific constituency of Americans. Concentrated, though not exclusively, in the swing states of the industrial Midwest.

Trump’s remarks were directed at the 70-odd percent of Americans who feel the country is on the wrong track and his remarks were designed to amplify those feelings and offer – in general terms – a different way forward.

I don’t believe that the pundits necessarily will give this speech high marks and in my own terms, Trump did not do anything that he has not done before on the campaign trail. But what he did do is present a vision of America, a path forward, and a vision of leadership that is very, very different than what the country has had for the last eight years.

COMMENT:  As I noted last night, I don't think it was a great speech, and the delivery was uncertain at best.  But I believe Schoen's analysis – he's a very good commentator – is fundamentally correct, and we may be seeing that in the initial public response to Trump.

The Dems meet next week, and I have a gut feeling, no evidence required, that they may mess it up because they won't be able to control their leftist instincts.  After they go home, we'll start the serious polling.

July 22, 2016       Permalink

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RAISING KAINE? – AT 9:52 A.M. ET:  It's only informed speculation, but signals point to Hillary Clinton choosing Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia as her running mate.  It would be a sound, common-sense choice, but the unstable left is balking.  From The New York Times:

Democrats close to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign signaled strongly Thursday that she would choose Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia as her running mate, rounding out the ticket with a popular politician from a battleground state.

Both former President Bill Clinton and the White House have expressed their support for Mr. Kaine, but aides cautioned that Mrs. Clinton had not yet made a final decision and that other candidates were still under consideration.

Mrs. Clinton is widely expected to announce her choice in an email to supporters while on a campaign swing in Florida on Friday afternoon, an attempt to regain momentum the day after her Republican opponent, Donald J. Trump, accepted his party’s nomination in Cleveland. With Mr. Kaine emerging as a clear favorite, one group already expressed disappointment at the prospect of the former governor of Virginia joining the ticket: liberals.

Many of the groups that backed Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont in his Democratic contest against Mrs. Clinton had hoped she would extend an olive branch to the liberal wing of the party and choose a vice-presidential candidate whose stances on Wall Street and global trade deals closely aligned with those of Mr. Sanders.

COMMENT:  Of course, the choice could turn out to be someone else.  But Clinton knows that the base of the Democratic Party isn't enough to win an election, and reports say that she wants to firm up her national security credentials.  Kaine would be a sound choice. 

I also think the Clintons, who are hardly favorites at this site, would love to give the left a good stick in the eye.

The announcement may come as early as today.

July 22,  2016     Permalink

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